What to Expect: States under the Trump Administration on Guns and Ammo

Posted by Wayne G. Barber

This feature focused on what the firearms and ammunition industries might expect under a Trump administration. Today, we're playing "what if" at the state and local level.

There are a dizzying number of options, despite the fact that 33 states now have Republican governors (the most in 94 years) and Republicans control 68 of the 99 state legislative chambers. There are also a record number of Republican state attorneys general- twenty nine.

But, says Jake McGuigan, the National Shooting Sports Foundation's Senior Director for State Affairs, that's no assurance of victory over anti-gun groups nationwide. In fact, McGuigan sees evidence of something he calls "California Creep": a changeover in neighboring states political makeup as liberal Californians move in and begin politically transforming their new homes to reflect their political view.

 There were some victories in the balancing act that is state government. They were significant in Connecticut, Illinois and New York.

Connecticut Republicans picked up enough seats to create a tie in the state Senate. Now Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) will have to cast tie-breaking votes. This may have a bearing on any first time ever Black Bear Hunting Season in the Nutmeg State. ( Population 2,000 Black Bears)

Illinois Republicans gained enough seats to break the Democratic supermajority. Significantly, that means enough Senate seats to sustain Gov. Bruce Rauner's vetoes.

In New York, Republicans appear (not everything's final there yet) to hold a Senate Majority. In anti-gun areas such as these, any ability to stop or delay anti-gun legislation is a good thing.

After high profile defeats on the national stage, anti-gun groups continue (as we first reported months ago) hiring state lobbyists and quietly moving their campaigns there, shifting battles over the battleground state and local campaigns.
Here are a few likely topics and the states where the NSSF predicts initial battles will be fought:

• "Smart gun" mandates with likely battlegrounds being California, Massachusetts and New Jersey
• Dealer licensing laws in Illinois and Maryland
• Bullet serialization in Illinois,
• Modern Sporting Rifle bans (Washington will be a test state for anti-gunners)
• Traditional ammo restrictions in many states
• Universal background checks - the NSSF says "wait and see" about this item.
• When it comes to pushing restrictions on traditional ammunition, there will likely be a shift from emphasizing hunting to "worker-focused" health aspects at shooting ranges and public facilities.
  
  "On ranges," McGuigan reminded everyone, "there are thousands of times the number of rounds fired as compared to hunting." Anti-gun groups, he believes, will be looking to show lead levels in range workers as demonstrating a public-health based need for constraints."
  
  That might seem far-fetched, but the hundreds of millions of dollars pledged by Michael Bloomberg and other anti-gun individuals and groups, is "immeasurable" (McGuigan's word) when compared to the funding of pro-gun groups at all levels.
  
  The secret to combating money- as has been repeatedly demonstrated nationwide, is voter participation. Money helps drive home messages, but it's not substitute to turning out concerned citizens when it comes to getting - and keeping- an elected official's attention.
  
  We may be on the verge of what fewer immediate threats to the firearms and ammunition industries, but It is essential the industry keep paying close attention, especially on the state and local levels.